星空传媒

Past Event

Ground Truth Briefing | Global Implications of Exiting the INF Treaty

By White House Photographic Office [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

President Trump's surprise announcement of his intention to abrogate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has reverberated around the world. Why did the President make this decision? What are its implications for international arms control efforts? How will this impact U.S. relations with Russia? What are the implications for U.S. capabilities in Asia and competition with China?

Listen in as 星空传媒 Center experts tackle these questions.

Selected Quotes
 

Abraham Denmark

"China has already announced its opposition to the U.S. resigning from the INF treaty, stating its concerns about implications for stability in Europe鈥 would bet that there are some in China that are concerned about Russia鈥檚 ability to develop weapons that could also put China in range at some point.鈥 

鈥淭here have been proposals to expand INF and bring China onboard. I actually think that鈥檚 quite unlikely. Both because the immature status of U.S.-China discussions on these issues, because of Chinese skepticism about the need for it to join these broader arms control discussions, but also because of the significant investments they鈥檝e made and their reliance on these capabilities.鈥

鈥淚n Asia, it鈥檚 a bit of a mixed bag, there are definitely upsides and downsides. To me, the ultimate question is how the mixed bag in Asia and the mixed bag in Russia equals out in the president鈥檚 mind, or what鈥檚 to the American advantage about moving forward.鈥

Matthew Rojansky

鈥淚n terms of Russia鈥檚 reaction now, there鈥檚 a rhetorical dimension that鈥檚 very big. The United States is undermining arms control, the United States is destroying strategic stability; this is a big rhetorical win for the Russians in the short-term. They will decry the end of global nonproliferation. They have not been doing a lot to help with nonproliferation in recent years, but they will now blame that on us.鈥 

鈥淭hus far, the Russian position is essentially all or nothing. If we鈥檙e going to do arms control, we are going to put everything on the table, which includes your ballistic missile facilities in eastern Europe, it includes your space capabilities, your cyber capabilities鈥e want it all on the table, and we鈥檒l negotiate a kind of big comprehensive new treaty. Of course the problem with this is it would take an extremely long time and a tremendous amount of political will to negotiate and we are not getting that so far.鈥

鈥淭he real problem here amounts to political context鈥n a context where we do not trust the Russians, and we feel that they are out to undermine our democracy, inviting very fundamental elements of arms control and diplomacy鈥hose things all become politically impossible.鈥

Speakers

Hosted By

Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow 星空传媒 International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the surrounding region through research and exchange.   Read more

Kennan Institute

Indo-Pacific Program

The Indo-Pacific Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on US interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the world鈥檚 most populous and economically dynamic region.   Read more

Indo-Pacific Program